WARREN’S PIECE: The numbers aren’t adding up for the Senators, raising questions about what lies ahead in second half of season
Breadcrumb Trail connects hockey
Cam Talbot didn’t carry his magic touch from December into the new year.
Ottawa Senators goaltender Cam Talbot looks on during a first-half time out against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG Paints Arena on Friday, January 20, 2023. After Friday’s 4-1 loss to the Penguins, he now has a 2.95 goals against average and a 0.903 savings percentage. Photo by Charles LeClaire /USA TODAY SPORTS article content
As the ever-widening chasm between the Ottawa Senators and a potential playoff spot slipped into double digits ahead of the Winnipeg Jets’ visit on Saturday, there were other numbers everywhere to help explain it all.
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Unless Senators find ways to improve those numbers significantly, the final 37 games of the 2022-23 season will have that familiar feeling of being largely meaningless.
Where do we start?
• Maybe with the goalkeeper. Cam Talbot didn’t carry his magic touch from December into the new year. After Friday’s 4-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins, he now has a 2.95 goals against average and a 0.903 percent in saves. In a league where anywhere from .910 to .915 is widely considered the line between good and not good enough, Senators just need more saves.
It’s worth noting that Senators’ once-promising goaltender Filip Gustavsson, who traded to the Minnesota Wild for Talbot last summer, is running against average with the league leaders with a .926 save and 2.16 goals.
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It shouldn’t all fall on Talbot’s shoulders. The original plan was for Talbot and Anton Forsberg to share the net, with the hottest taking over the net if he played a part. But Forsberg went into the tilt Saturday with the Winnipeg Jets with a .902 percent save and 3.25 goals against average. Last season, Forsberg excelled at rescuing the Senators from their Matt Murray problem by running with the No. 1 job while going 22-17-4 with a .917 percent save.
Who will coach DJ Smith lean on while the season remains in limbo?
“We need them both,” Smith said before the puck fell against the Jets.
• Or maybe at the other end of the ice, where the Senators make opposing goalies look good on many nights. The chances were there, the finish wasn’t. Normally, 45 shots on goal, as was the case against Pittsburgh on Friday, should result in a win. Interestingly, the Senators have now lost 10 games in which they fired at least 35 shots. The only teams with more losses in plus-35 shot games are the Calgary Flames and Florida Panthers.
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Linked to this, of course, is the fact that the senators struggle with equal strength in situations. When the Jets came to town, the Senators had scored just 68 goals in a five-for-five. That’s 31st in the league, ahead only of the Chicago Blackhawks. In this situation they had conceded 101 goals, which means 24th place.
“I think a lot is made of not scoring enough goals,” Smith said. “Five against five, we have one (against Pittsburgh) but you have to give up less. If you’re focused on scoring points, suddenly you’ve given up seven odd-man rushes. They’ve been watching us and it’s a coin toss who’s going to hit and they’ve hit on two of those rushes. It was certainly a point the coach stressed with his players when the powerful Jets arrived.
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• The blatant individual plus/minus numbers are closely related to this. Specifically, Drake Batherson, who leads (lagging?) the NHL by a plus/minus 30. Alex DeBrincat is at minus 18 and Shane Pinto is at minus 17.
Here’s the Catch-22: Can you take the ice age out of some of your most talented offensive stars in the name of more consistent defense?
Interestingly, when Mathieu Joseph returned from injury earlier in the week, Smith said it was possible Joseph could play somewhere in the front two lines if any of the existing top six were struggling. The other factor that should help is the return of testing winger Tyler Motte, who is expected to return after suffering an upper-body injury after the February break.
At this point, Smith’s options for change are limited. The only change Saturday from Friday was Dylan Gambrell coming back and sitting out Derick Brassard with a healthy scratch.
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• Waiting for Belleville appeals: So far, general manager Pierre Dorion has resisted the temptation to give Ridly Greig his first full-length appearance in the NHL and give Egor Sokolov another chance to prove himself in the big leagues. However, as the season goes by, the experience gained this year could be beneficial for 2023-24. Greig, drafted 28th overall in 2020, has recorded 12 goals and 11 assists in 27 games for Belleville after struggling with injuries earlier in the season. Sokolov, meanwhile, has made his way to the AHL All-Star Game after recording 12 goals and 25 assists in 35 games. Interestingly, Dorion told TSN 1200-AM on Friday that Sokolov resumed play after the team recalled both Rourke Chartier and Jake Lucchini in his stead in December.
There are endless numbers to chew on here, and they get even more intriguing when the senators can’t find a way to bridge the distance between them and the postseason.
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GARRIOCH: Senators’ playoff hopes suffer a major hit with another loss in Pittsburgh
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